Woolly Worm Caterpillars and Winter Forecasts and Folklore

Every October, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center releases a winter outlook to give the public the best possible scientific prediction of how the winter may shape up across the nation; but in the pre-NOAA days, folks got this same information from a more humble source--the Woolly Bear caterpillar.  Ã‚   Called woolly bears in the Midwest and Northeast, and woolly worms in the Southern U.S., Woolly Bear caterpillars are the larvae of Isabella tiger moths. Theyre common to the United States, northern Mexico, and the southern third of Canada, and are easily recognized by their short, stiff bristles of reddish-brown  and black fur. How to Read a Woollys Colors According to folklore, the woolly worms coloring is said to indicate how severe  the coming winter will be in the local area  where the caterpillar  is found.  The Woolly Bear caterpillars body  has 13 distinct segments. According to weather lore, each one corresponds to one of the 13 weeks of winter. Each black band  represents one week of colder, snowier, and more severe winter conditions, whereas orange bands indicate  that many weeks of milder temperatures. (Some even believe that the position of the bands which part of winter. For example, if the tail end of the caterpillar is black, it means that winters end will be severe.)  Ã‚   Two other versions  of this folklore exist. The first relates the severity of winter to  the thickness of the caterpillars coat. (Thicker coats signal  colder winters, and a sparse coat, milder winters.)  The final  variation deals with the direction in which the caterpillar  crawls. (If a woolly crawls in a southerly direction it means hes trying to escape the cold winter conditions of the north. If he travels on a northward path, that indicates a mild winter.)    Significance of Solid-Colored Woolly Worms Not all woolly worms have alternating orange  and black markings. Occasionally, youll spot one thats all brown, all black, or solid white. Like their brown and black relatives, they too have : Orange:  Just as reddish-brown segments signal a week of mild temperatures, an all brown caterpillar  suggests  an overall mild winter with above-normal temperatures and insignificant snowfall.Black: An all black caterpillar  signals the onset of a very hard upcoming winter.White (sand-colored): White woolly worms are said to predict winter snowfall. Spotting one is supposedly a strong indicator that heavier than average snows --  or even a blizzard  -- can be expected in the region during the winter season.   How Fame Found the Woolly Worm The woolly worms talent was first discovered in the late 1940s by Dr. Charles Curran, former curator of insects at New York City’s Museum of Natural History. As the story goes, Dr. Curran measured the coloration of woolly bear caterpillars between 1948 and 1956  at  Bear Mountain State Park. During those years, he found that 5.3 to 5.6 of the observed caterpillars 13 body segments were  orange. As his counts suggested, the winters for each of those years turned out to  indeed be  mild.  A reporter friend of Currans leaked his  forecasts to a NYC newspaper,  and  the  publicity the story  generated made woolly  bear caterpillars a household name. Is the Folklore True? Dr. Curran found that the width of reddish-brown fur correctly matched the winter type with 80% accuracy. While his data samples were small, for some people this was enough to legitimize  the folklore.  However, for the majority of todays  professionals, it isnt sufficient data. They argue that not only is a woolly bears coloring  based on its age and species, but also  that it would take researching an awful lot of caterpillars in one place over a great many years in order to make any conclusions about  woollys and  winter weather. One thing most can agree on is that regardless of whether or not the folklore is true,  its a harmless and fun autumn tradition to take part in. When and Where  to Spot  Woolly Worms Woolly worms are usually seen  in autumn  on sidewalks and  roadways.  If you do meet one, dont expect it to hang around for long. Woollys are busy creatures, always on-the-go  searching for a cozy home underneath a rock or log to overwinter in. They  move  pretty fast too (as worms go)!  Ã‚   One sure-fire  way to meet a woolly is to attend a  woolly worm festival. 2016  Woolly Worm Festivals Like  the  groundhog, woolly worms have become so  popular, several festivals have sprouted up across the United States to honor them. The  longest-running festivals are celebrated in:   Vermilion, Ohio. Ohios annual  Woollybear Festival  is one of the longest-running in the US. The festival started more than four decades ago, when  TV weatherman, Mr. Dick Goddard, proposed the idea of a celebration built around using the worm to forecast the upcoming winter. He still hosts the festival to this day.  This years festival is scheduled to be held October 2, 2016. Banner Elk, North  Carolina.  Held every third weekend in October.  This years 39th Annual Woolly Worm festival dates are October 15-16, 2016.   Beattyville, Kentucky. Beattyvilles Woolly Worm Festival is always the last full weekend in October.  This years 29th annual festival will take place October 21-23,  2016.   Lewisburg, Pennsylvania. Currently in its 19th year, this years festival will take place on October 15, 2016. If youre a fan of woolly worm festivals, let us also recommend these weather-focused festivals.